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Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co (SHSE:603330) Predictability Rank


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What is Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co (SHSE:603330) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co Ltd (SHSE:603330) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:001207 SHSE:688398 SHSE:688267 SHSE:603020 SHSE:688786 SHSE:688585 SZSE:301193 SZSE:300905 SZSE:002917 SHSE:603360 LIN XPAR:AI APD SHW ECL SHSE:600309 XSWX:SIKA BOM:500820 DD XSWX:GIVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 505, Huiping Road, Nanxiang Town, Jiading District, Shanghai, CHN, 201802
Website
http://www.hotmelt.com.cn
Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co Ltd formerly Shanghai Tianyang Hot Melt Adhesives Co Ltd is principally engaged in research and development, manufacture and sales of thermoplastic environmental protection adhesive materials. It offers copolyester and copolyamide powders; and web, film, and PUR adhesives; adhesive tapes and EVA solar films; and hot melt adhesive particles, powders, and films. Its products are mainly applied in the fields of shoes and clothes, automotive trims, solar cell packaging, household textiles, electronics, industrial filtration, hot melt adhesive products, printing and packaging, furnishings and coating, among others.
Executives
Ma Xi Mei Director
Li Tie Shan Director
Li Zhe Long Director
Shang Xiao Lu Director
Sun Gao Feng Supervisors
Zhang Jian Hong Supervisors
Ma Sheng Jia Supervisors
Zhu Wan Yu Director

Tianyang New material (Shanghai) Technology Co (SHSE:603330) Headlines

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