GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Ltd (SHSE:603699) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co (SHSE:603699) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Ltd (SHSE:603699) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:688425 SHSE:601608 SZSE:300757 SZSE:002837 SZSE:300724 SZSE:300718 SHSE:600835 SZSE:002430 SZSE:000519 SHSE:600765 XTER:SIE XPAR:SU ETN GEV PH OSTO:ATCO A ITW TSE:7011 XTER:ENR EMR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.666 Taishan Road, New District, Suzhou, Jiangsu, CHN
Website
http://www.newayvalve.com
Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Ltd is a manufacturer and exporter of industrial valves. Its main products include Gate valve, globe valve, check valve, Cast steel valves, API602 forged steel valves, API603 stainless steel valves, Cryogenic Valves, Bellows Valves, Floating ball - Steel. Geographically it operates through China, however its business presence is also seen internationally.
Executives
Chen Bin Supervisors
Cheng Xue Lai senior management
Li Na senior management
Ling Lei Jing senior management
Feng Yin Long Directors, senior managers
Lu Jian Hong senior management
Lu Liang Feng Directors, senior managers
Wei Han Sen senior management
Cheng Zhang Wen Director
Deng Guo Chuan Director
Yao Jiong senior management
Xi Chao Director
Lu Bin Director
Wang Bao Qing Director
Gao Kai Ke senior management

Neway Valve (Suzhou) Co Headlines

No Headlines