SITE (SiteOne Landscape Supply) Predictability Rank

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What is SiteOne Landscape Supply Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SiteOne Landscape Supply Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SiteOne Landscape Supply Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SiteOne Landscape Supply Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (NYSE:SITE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Colonial Center Parkway, Suite 600, Roswell, GA, USA, 30076

Website

https://www.siteone.com

SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc is a supplier of tools and equipment. The company serves various businesses which include wholesale irrigation, outdoor lighting, nursery, landscape supplies, grass seeds, and fertilizers, turf protection products, turf care equipment, and golf course accessories for green industry professionals mainly in the United States and Canada. Its product portfolio includes irrigation supplies, fertilizer and herbicides, landscape accessories, nursery goods, natural stones and blocks, outdoor lighting and ice melt products and other products.

Executives

Doug Black	director, officer: CEO	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Joseph Ketter	officer: Senior VP, Human Resources.	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Fred M Diaz	director	9614 AMALFI CT, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
John T Guthrie	officer: EVP, CFO and Assistant Sec.	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Brisendine L Briley Jr	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Shannon Versaggi	officer: SVP Marketing	1004 SUMMIT VIEW LANE, MILTON GA 30004
Greg Weller	officer: Senior VP of Operations	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Douglas William W Iii	director	COCA-COLA ENTERPRISES, INC, 2500 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
Webster Roy Dunbar	director	5757 N. GREEN BAY AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Jack L Wyszomierski	director	SCHERING PLOUGH CORP, ONE GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940-1000
Larisa Drake	director	EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC., TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jeri L Isbell	director	ONE LEXMARK CENTRE DR, 740 WEST NEW CIRCLE RD, LEXINGTON KY 40550
Scott Salmon	officer: EVP, Strategy & Development	14155 SEABISCUIT, MILTON GA 30004
Ross Anker	officer: EVP, Category Mgmt, Mktg & IT	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL 2Q 30076
Pascal Convers	officer: EVP, Strategy and Development	MANSELL OVERLOOK, 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076