SLAB (Silicon Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is Silicon Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Silicon Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Silicon Laboratories Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Silicon Laboratories Inc (NAS:SLAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LA5:Germany

Address

400 West Cesar Chavez, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.silabs.com

Silicon Laboratories Inc Inc is a provider of secure, intelligent wireless technology for a more connected world. The company's integrated hardware and software platform, intuitive development tools, industry ecosystem, and robust support help customers build industrial, commercial, home, and life applications. Company make it easy for developers to solve complex wireless challenges throughout the product lifecycle and get to market quickly with solutions that transform industries, grow economies, and improve lives. Company operates in USA, China, Taiwan and Rest of World, with maximum revenue from rest of the world.

Executives

William G Bock	director, officer: President	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Navdeep S Sooch	director	400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Brandon Tolany	officer: Sr VP of Worldwide Sales	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ STREET, AUSTIN TX 78701
Robert Matthew Johnson	officer: SR VP & GM, IOT	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Christy Wyatt	director	C/O QUOTIENT TECHNOLOGY INC., 1260 EAST STRINGHAM AVENUE, SUITE 600, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Nina Richardson	director	C/O SILICON LABORATORIES, 400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Robert J Conrad	director	400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Sherri R Luther	director	111 SW FIFTH AVE SUITE 700, PORTLAND OR 97204
Jack R Lazar	director	400 W. CESAR CHAVEZ, ATTN: STOCK ADMINISTRATION, AUSTIN TX 78701
Sumit Sadana	director	47544 AVALON HEIGHTS TERRACE, FREMONT CA 94539
Mark D Mauldin	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Daniel Mark Thompson	officer: SR VP & GM, INFRA & Automotive	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
John C Hollister	officer: Sr VP and CFO	400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
George Tyson Tuttle	director, officer: CEO	400 WEST CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
Sandeep P Kumar	officer: SVP, Worldwide Operations	400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701