Solid Biosciences (Solid Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Solid Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solid Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Solid Biosciences (Solid Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Solid Biosciences Inc (NAS:SLDB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Rutherford Avenue, Third Floor, Charlestown, MA, USA, 02129

Website

https://www.solidbio.com

Solid Biosciences Inc is a life science company. It is engaged in the manufacturing of specialty and generic drugs. The company is involved in curing Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a genetic muscle-wasting disease predominantly affecting boys, with symptoms that usually manifest between three and five years of age. The company's pipeline products are the SB-001 and solid suit. The company has categorized its programs into corrective therapies, disease-modifying therapies, and assistive devices.

Executives

Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Kevin Tan	officer: CFO & Treasurer	20 HICKORY ROAD, WELLESLEY MA 02482
Ilan Ganot	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES, LLC, 141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
David T Howton	officer: See Remarks	VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jennifer Marlowe	officer: CSO, FA & Cardiac	500 RUTHERFORD AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
Paul Herzich	officer: Chief Technology Officer	500 RUTHERFORD AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
Jessie Hanrahan	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	500 RUTHERFORD AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
Gabriel Brooks	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES INC., 500 RUTHERFORD AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
Carl Ashley Morris	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES, LLC, 141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Georgia Keresty	director	C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Clare Kahn	director	141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Ian F Smith	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Bcls Sb Investco, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bcls Ii Investo (gp), Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116