What is Stabilis Solutions Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Stabilis Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Stabilis Solutions Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11750 Katy Freeway, Suite 900, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
Stabilis Solutions Inc is an energy transition company that provides turnkey clean energy production, storage, transportation, and fueling solutions using liquefied natural gas (LNG) to multiple end markets. The company provides LNG solutions to customers in diverse end markets, including aerospace, agriculture, energy, industrials, marine bunkering, mining, pipeline, remote power, and utility markets. It generates revenue by selling and delivering LNG to its customers, renting cryogenic equipment, and providing engineering and field support services. It has a geographical presence in the United States and Mexico.
Executives
| Edward L Kuntz |
director |
|
| Andrew Lewis Puhala |
officer: Senior Vice President & CFO |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Peter C. Mitchell |
director |
505 FRONT AVENUE, P.O. BOX I, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83816 |
| Ballard Westervelt T. Jr |
director, officer: President and CEO |
601 POYDRAS STREET, SUITE 2400, NEW ORLEANS LA 70130 |
| Matthew Morris |
director |
1905 SHARP PL, HOUSTON TX 77019 |
| Jch Crenshaw Holdings, Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
470 ORLEANS ST., 7TH FLOOR, BEAUMONT TX 77701 |
| Benjamin J. Broussard |
director |
1655 LOUISIANA STREET, BEAUMONT TX 77701 |
| James Calvin Reddinger |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Stacey B. Crenshaw |
director, 10 percent owner |
10375 RICHMOND AVE., SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| James George Aivalis |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Mushahid Khan |
director |
10375 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77042 |
| Lng Investment Company, Llc |
10 percent owner |
1655 LOUISIANA STREET, BEAUMONT TX 77701 |
| Will B. Crenshaw |
director |
1655 LOUISIANA STREET, BEAUMONT TX 77701 |
| William Charles Miller |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
102 SENECA PLACE, MARS PA 16046 |
| Peacock James Hoke Ii |
director |
C/O M & I ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC., 6410 LONG DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77087 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
SLNG has been successfully added to your