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SLR Investment (SLR Investment) Predictability Rank


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What is SLR Investment Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SLR Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SLR Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SLR Investment's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SLR Investment (SLR Investment) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » SLR Investment Corp (NAS:SLRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ETW RNP CII NRK CHI AOD BCX NOAH AWF AC BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
ZSL:Germany
Address
500 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022
Website
https://www.slrinvestmentcorp.com
SLR Investment Corp is a closed-end investment company that has elected to be treated as a business development company. It provides U.S. middle market businesses and intermediaries with bespoke debt financing solutions to fund working capital, acquisition, refinancing and growth capital requirements.
Executives
Michael S Gross director, officer: See Remarks C/O SOLAR CAPITAL LTD., 500 PARK AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Roberts Andrea Colvin director 500 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Guy Talarico officer: Chief Compliance Officer 590 MADISON AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Shiraz Kajee officer: CFO, Treasurer & Secretary 500 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bruce J Spohler director, officer: See Remarks
Steven Hochberg director 560 WHITE PLAINS ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Leonard Potter director C/O SOLAR CAPITAL LLC, 500 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard Peteka officer: See Remarks CITIGROUP ASSET MANAGEMENT, 300 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE 4TH FL, STAMFORD CT 06902
David Wachter director W. CAPITAL PARTNERS, ONE EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian Gerson officer: Executive Vice President C/O SOLAR CAPITAL LTD., 500 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nicholas Radesca officer: Chief Financial Officer & Sec C/O SOLAR CAPITAL LLC, 500 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022