SLVM (Sylvamo) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Sylvamo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sylvamo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sylvamo Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sylvamo's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Sylvamo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Sylvamo Corp (NYSE:SLVM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

88L:Germany

Address

6077 Primacy Parkway, Memphis, TN, USA, 38119

Website

https://www.sylvamo.com

Sylvamo Corp is an uncoated papers company with a broad portfolio of top-tier brands and low-cost, large-scale paper mills, it produces uncoated freesheet (UFS) for paper products such as cut size and offset paper, as well as market pulp. The company offers Copy and Printer papers, Commercial Printing papers, Converting papers and Specialty papers. It operates in three geographical segments: Europe, Latin America, and North America. Key revenue is generated from North America.

Executives

Jeanmichel Ribieras	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Peggy Maes	officer: SVP & Chief People Officer	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Hirschfeld Tatiana Kalman	officer: SVP & GM, Latin America	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6077 PRIMACY PARKWAY, MEMPHIS TN 38119
John V Sims	director, officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Karl L Meyers	director	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6077 PRIMACY PARKWAY, MEMPHIS TN 38119
Kevin W Ferguson	officer: VP, Controller,Chief Acct.Off.	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Thomas A Cleves	officer: SVP, Corporate Affairs	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Mark Wilde	director	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6077 PRIMACY PARKWAY, MEMPHIS TN 38119
Citigroup Inc	10 percent owner	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
International Paper Co /new/	10 percent owner	6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Matthew Barron	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	C/O SYLVAMO CORPORATION, 6400 POPLAR AVENUE, MEMPHIS TN 38197
Atlas Capital Gp Iv Lp	10 percent owner	100 NORTHFIELD STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Atlas Capital Resources Gp Iv Llc	10 percent owner	100 NORTHFIELD STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Andrew M Bursky	10 percent owner
Timothy J Fazio	10 percent owner	ATLAS HOLDINGS LLC, 100 NORTHFIELD STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830