SMCI (Super Micro Computer) Predictability Rank

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What is Super Micro Computer Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Super Micro Computer Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Super Micro Computer Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Super Micro Computer Inc (NAS:SMCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SMCI:Mexico 1SMCI:Italy MS51:Germany SMCI:Canada SMC2:Austria

Address

980 Rock Avenue, San Jose, CA, USA, 95131

Website

https://www.supermicro.com

Super Micro Computer Inc provides high-performance server technology services to cloud computing, data center, Big Data, high-performance computing, and "Internet of Things" embedded markets. Its solutions include server, storage, blade and workstations to full racks, networking devices, and server management software. The firm follows a modular architectural approach, which provides flexibility to deliver customized solutions. The Company operates in one operating segment that develops and provides high-performance server solutions based upon an innovative, modular and open-standard architecture. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from Europe, Asia, and other regions.

Executives

Daniel W Fairfax	director	1421 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Tally C Liu	director	50 W SAN FERNANDO ST 15TH FLR, SAN JOSE CA 95113
Liu Liang Chiu-chu Sara	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Senior VP and Treasurer	980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Charles Liang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	SUPER MICRO COMPUTER, INC., 980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Sherman Tuan	director	C/O ABOVENET COMMUNICATIONS INC, 50 W SAN FERNANDO STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95113
George Kao	officer: SVP, OPERATIONS	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Don W Clegg	officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Shiu Leung Chan	director	48401 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538
Robert L Blair	director	48401 FREMONT BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538
David E Weigand	officer: SVP, CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Judy L. Lin	director	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Hwei-ming Fred Tsai	director	980 ROCK AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Kevin S Bauer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	980 ROCK AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95131
Cheng-hsien Phidias Chou	officer: VP Worldwide Sales	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Howard Hideshima	officer: Chief Financial Officer	980 ROCK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95131