Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings (Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings (Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings Inc (NAS:SONN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Overlook Center, Suite 102, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540

Website

https://www.sonnetbio.com

Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The company has developed FHAB (Fully Human Albumin Binding) technology which is well suited for drug development across a range of human disease areas, including in oncology, autoimmune, pathogenic, inflammatory, and hematological conditions. The firm's pipeline products include SON-080 (low-dose IL-6), SON-1210 (IL15- FHAB-IL12), SON-1010 (IL12-FHAB), and others.

Executives

John Markey	10 percent owner	10096 RIDGEWOOD DRIVE, TWINSBURG OH 44087
Susan Dexter	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Albert D. Dyrness	director	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Nailesh Bhatt	director	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Pankaj Mohan	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Lori Mcneill	director	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, SUITE 102, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Richard T Kenney	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O IMMUNE DESIGN CORP., 1616 EASTLAKE AVE. E, SUITE 310, SEATTLE WA 98102
Donald J. Griffith	director	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Terence Anthony Rugg	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
John K. Cini	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Raghu Rao	director	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Cross John Harry Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SONNET BIOTHERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 OVERLOOK CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Oz Rey Llc	10 percent owner	918 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78701
Mv Amanth Llc	10 percent owner	515 CONGRESS AVE, STE 1400, AUSTIN TX 78701-3516
Robert Sumner Hersch	10 percent owner	515 CONGRESS AVE, STE 1400, AUSTIN TX 78701