SPLPPA.PFD (Steel Partners Holdings LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Steel Partners Holdings LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Steel Partners Holdings LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Steel Partners Holdings LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Steel Partners Holdings LP Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Steel Partners Holdings LP (NYSE:SPLPpA.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPLP:USA

Address

590 Madison Avenue, 32nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.steelpartners.com

Steel Partners Holdings LP operates in industrial products, energy, defense, supply chain management and logistics, banking, and youth sports industries. Its segments include the Diversified Industrial segment comprised of manufacturers of engineered niche industrial products, joining materials, tubing, building materials, performance materials etc; the Energy segment provides drilling and production services to the oil and gas industry and owns a youth sports business; the Financial Services segment consists of the operations of WebBank, a Utah chartered industrial bank, which engages in full range of banking activities; The Supply Chain segment consists of end-to-end world-wide supply; and Corporate and Other consists of equity method and other investments, and cash and cash equivalents.

Executives

Ryan O'herrin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-8547
Joseph Richards Martin	officer: See Remarks	C/O LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORPORATION, 414 UNION STREET, SUITE 2000, NASHVILLE TN 37219
Gary Tankard	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS LP, 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jason Wong	officer: Chief Financial Officer	590 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 32, C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS LP, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gordon A. Walker	officer: Senior Vice President	KNOWLES CORPORATION, 1151 MAPLEWOOD DRIVE, ITASCA IL 60143
Lon Rosen	director	120 S. CARMELINA AVE., LOS ANGELES CA 90049
Rory H. Tahari	director	510 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
James Iii Benenson	director	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Eric P. Karros	director	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Emh Howard Llc	other: See Footnote 1	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Fejes William Theodore Jr	officer: President, Steel Services, Ltd	440 NORTH FIFTH AVENUE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Douglas Woodworth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sph Spv-i Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Partners, Ltd.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wgl Capital Corp.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022