Searchlight Minerals (Searchlight Minerals) Predictability Rank

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What is Searchlight Minerals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Searchlight Minerals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Searchlight Minerals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Searchlight Minerals (Searchlight Minerals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Searchlight Minerals Corp (OTCPK:SRCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2360 West Horizon Ridge Parkway, Suite 100, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052

Website

https://www.searchlightminerals.com

Searchlight Minerals Corp is a exploration-stage company. It is engaged in the slag reprocessing project and the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties at the Clarkdale Slag Project. The Clarkdale Slag Project located in Arizona is a reclamation project to recover precious and base metals from the reprocessing of slag produced from the smelting of copper ore mined at the United Verde Copper Mine in Arizona.

Executives

Luxor Capital Group, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lcg Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Luxor Capital Partners Offshore Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LTD., PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Luxor Wavefront, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Luxor Capital Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Thebes Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
John Edward Mack	director	P.O.BOX 1575, BRECKENRIDGE CO 80424
Thebes Partners Offshore, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Thebes Offshore Master Fund, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Luxor Spectrum Offshore Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LTD, P.O. BOX 309 GT, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Luxor Spectrum Llc	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ian R Mcneil	director, officer: CEO	3500 LAKESIDE COURT, SUITE 206, RENO NV 89509

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