What is Surrozen Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Surrozen Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Surrozen Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
171 Oyster Point Boulevard, Suite 400, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
Surrozen Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company committed to discovering and developing drug candidates to selectively modulate the Wnt pathway, a critical mediator of tissue repair, in a broad range of organs and tissues. Its product candidate includes SZN-1326 (Fzd5/Lrp6, SWAP), SZN-413 and SZN-043 (E3/ASGR1, SWEETS).
Executives
| Charles O Williams |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O HERITAGE FINANCIAL GROUP, 721 NORTH WESTOVER BOULEVARD, ALBANY GA 31707 |
| Tim Kutzkey |
director, 10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Column Group Iii Gp, Lp |
10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
| Anna Berkenblit |
director |
830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Eric Bjerkholt |
director |
132 PURDURE AVENUE, KENGSINGTON CA 94708 |
| Blutt Mitchell J Md |
director, 10 percent owner |
1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICA, SUITE 3301, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Christopher Y Chai |
director |
2400 BAYSHORE PARKWAY, SUITE 200, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Mary Haak-frendscho |
director |
171 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Wen-chen Yeh |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
171 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| House Joshua Cory |
other: Former VP Business Development |
C/O CONSONANCE-HWF ACQUISITION CORP, 1 PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 305, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Geertrui Vanhove |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
1333 S. SPECTRUM BLVD #100, CHANDLER AZ 85286 |
| Mace Rothenberg |
director |
171 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 400, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Donald J Santel |
other: Former Director |
4362 24TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114 |
| David J Woodhouse |
director |
630 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Column Group Iii, Lp |
10 percent owner |
1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158 |
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