SSTK (Shutterstock) Predictability Rank

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What is Shutterstock Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shutterstock Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Shutterstock Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shutterstock Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Shutterstock Inc (NYSE:SSTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0A8F:UK S3T:Germany

Address

350 Fifth Avenue, 20th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10118

Website

https://www.shutterstock.com

Shutterstock Inc is a U.S.-based company that is engaged in the provision of digital content. The content segment, whose offerings include licenses for Images, Footage, Music, 3 Dimensional, and Generative AI content. Data, Distribution, and Service offerings address customer demand for products and services that are beyond its Content licenses. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Content offerings. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from the Domestic market, but also has its presence in Europe and Rest of the Countries.

Executives

Jarrod Yahes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	425 W. 53RD STREET, PH1, NEW YORK NY 10119
Paul J. Hennessy	director	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, INC., 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
John Caine	officer: Global Head of eCommerce	350 FIFTH AVE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Jonathan Oringer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, INC., 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Steven Ciardiello	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	269 HANCE ROAD, FAIR HAVEN NJ 07704
Deirdre Mary Bigley	director	109 INWOOD AVENUE, MONTCLAIR NJ 07043
Peter Silvio	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, INC., 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Stan Pavlovsky	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3316 LINCOLN AVE NE, RENTON WA 98056
Thomas R Evans	director	11760 US HIGHWAY ONE, SUITE 200, NORTH PALM BEACH FL 33408
Alfonse L Upshaw	director	350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10118
Abraham Moshe Muchnick	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O SHUTTERSTOCK, INC., 350 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10118
Rachna Bhasin	director	1855 GRIFFIN ROAD, B454, DANIA BEACH FL 33004
Martin Brodbeck	officer: Chief Technology Officer	26 BLAIR ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504
Louis Weiss	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O VITAMIN SHOPPE, 2101 91ST STREET, NORTH BERGEN NJ 07047
Jeffrey Kane Weiser	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	314 S. GLENROY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90049