STEP (StepStone Group) Predictability Rank

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What is StepStone Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

StepStone Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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StepStone Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » StepStone Group Inc (NAS:STEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STEP:Mexico

Address

277 Park Avenue, 45th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10172

Website

https://www.stepstonegroup.com

StepStone Group Inc operates as a fully integrated private markets solution provider. The company provides customized investment solutions and advisory and data services. It provides investment solutions in the areas of private equity, real estate, private debt, and infrastructure and real assets. The company consists of a single operating segment and a single reportable segment for accounting and financial reporting purposes.

Executives

Scott W Hart	officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michael I Mccabe	officer: Head of Strategy	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
David Y Park	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Thomas Keck	director, other: See Remarks	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Steven R Mitchell	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ASPEN AEROGELS, INC., 30 FORBES ROAD, BUILDING B, NORTHBOROUGH MA 01532
David F Hoffmeister	director	C/O STEPSTONE GROUP INC., 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Lim	10 percent owner	100 PAINTERS MILL ROAD, SUITE 700, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Jason P Ment	officer: See Remarks	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Argonaut Private Equity, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA OK 74136
Monte M Brem	director, officer: See Remarks	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Johnny D Randel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Robert Waldo	director, 10 percent owner	6733 S. YALE AVE., TULSA, OK 74136
Valerie Gay Brown	director	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jose A Fernandez	officer: Co-Chief Operating Officer	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark Maruszewski	director, other: See Remarks	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017