SUME (Summer Energy Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Summer Energy Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Summer Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Summer Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Summer Energy Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Summer Energy Holdings Inc (OTCPK:SUME) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5847 San Felipe Street, Suite 3700, Houston, TX, USA, 77057

Website

https://www.summerenergy.com

Summer Energy Holdings Inc operates as a retail electricity provider. The company sells electricity and provides related billing, customer service, collections, and remittance services to residential and commercial customers. It derives revenue from the sale of electricity to residential and small commercial customers.

Executives

Jaleea Pyle George	director, officer: CFO, Secretary	5847 SAN FELIPE STREET, #3700, HOUSTON TX 77057
James P Stapleton	director
Andrew Bursten	director	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057
Jeffery Mace Meeks	director	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057
Tom Davis Oleary	director, 10 percent owner	5847 SAN FELIPE STREET, #3700, HOUSTON TX 77057
Stuart Charles Gaylor	director	7807 MAIN STREET, HOUSTON TX 77030
Neil Leibman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President	5847 SAN FELIPE STREET, #3700, HOUSTON TX 77057
Kelli Jean Mitchell	officer: Chief Operating Officer	5847 SAN FELIPE STREET, SUITE 3700, HOUSTON TX 77057
Albert Jr Larose	director	24918 PALMER COVE DRIVE, SPRING TX 77389
Angela Hanley	officer: Sr VP of Operations & Mktg	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057
Maa Holdings, Ltd.	10 percent owner	515 W. FRIAR TUCK LANE, HOUSTON TX 77024
Michael D Vanderhoof	director	PO BOX 715, OAKLEY UT 84055
Tom M. Davis Family Lands Trust	10 percent owner	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057
Meryl Lee Roberts	10 percent owner	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057
Andrew J. Priest	director	800 BERING DRIVE, SUITE 260, HOUSTON TX 77057

Summer Energy Holdings Headlines

From GuruFocus

Summer Energy Holdings Inc (sume) CFO, Secretary Jaleea Pyle George Bought $205,880 of Shares

By [email protected] insider • 06-24-2020