What is SUNation Energy Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
SUNation Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
SUNation Energy Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
171 Remington Boulevard, Ronkonkoma, NY, USA, 11779
SUNation Energy Inc provides households with sustainable solar energy, back-up power and security, control and predictability, and cost savings. The company provides a full range of installation services, including design, engineering, procurement, permitting, construction, grid connection, warranty, monitoring, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. It also offers battery storage to customers in select markets and serves a limited number of enterprise customers.
Executives
| Roger Hd Lacey |
director |
10900 RED CIRCLE DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Scott Maskin |
director |
40 GRASSMERE AVENUE, OAKDALE NY 11769 |
| Eric Ingvaldson |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
10900 RED CIRCLE DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Tom Holland |
director |
315 LAKE STREET EAST, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Randall D Sampson |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Scott Honour |
director |
10877 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 18TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90024 |
| Northern Pacific Growth Investment Advisors, Llc |
10 percent owner |
315 EAST LAKE STREET, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Michael R. Zapata |
director |
2765 NW NICOLAI STREET, PORTLAND OR 97210 |
| Kyle Udseth |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
NORTHERN PACIFIC GROUP, 315 EAST LAKE STREET, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Marilyn S. Adler |
director |
315 LAKE STREET EAST, SUITE 301, WAYZATA MN 55391 |
| Mike Siegler |
officer: Senior Vice President |
10900 RED CIRCLE DR., MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Anita Kumar |
director, officer: President/CEO |
10900 RED CIRCLE DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55343 |
| Steven Webster |
director |
4901 ARDEN AVE., EDINA MN 55424 |
| Richard A Primuth |
director |
|
| Scott Fluegge |
officer: VP |
12946 66TH ST N, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33412 |
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