Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co (SZSE:002049) Predictability Rank

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What is Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co (SZSE:002049) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (SZSE:002049) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No.1 Wangzhuang Road, 15th Floor, Building D, Tsinghua Tongfang Hi-tech Plaza, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN, 100083

Website

http://www.gosinoic.com

Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd is a professional integrated circuit design company. It provides integrated circuit chips, smart card chip, terminal chip, special ICs and crystal chips. The company has five existing business sections, including Tongfang Microelectronics engaged in the smart card chip design business, Shenzhen Guowei engaged in IC design in a specific industry, Unigroup Tongchuang engaged in FPGA, Xi 'an Unigroup Guoxin engaged in memory chip design, and Crystal Business Department engaged in crystal business.

Executives

Yan Li Qun	Executives
Wang Zhi Hua	Supervisors
Shen Hong	Supervisors
Zhang Li Qiang	Supervisors
Zhu Chang Hua	Directors, executives
Meng Ling Fu	Supervisors
Lu Zhi Cheng	Director
Zhang Huai Fang	Supervisors
Guo Hong Yu	Supervisors
Bi Li Xin	Director
Wang Xiao Dong	Supervisors
Hu Zhi Xiong	Executives
Wu Jie	Directors, executives
Tao Zhi Ming	Executives
Li Yan Qin	Executives

Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co (SZSE:002049) Headlines

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