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Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co (SZSE:002178) Predictability Rank


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What is Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co (SZSE:002178) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co Ltd (SZSE:002178) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600769 SZSE:002047 SZSE:300989 SHSE:603909 SZSE:002663 SHSE:603017 SHSE:600463 BJSE:836208 SZSE:301505 SHSE:688509 XPAR:DG NSE:LT PWR SHSE:601668 SHSE:601390 TSX:WSP EME J HKSE:01800 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 518 Wuning South Road, Hitech Plaza, 20F, Jing'an District, Shanghai, Shanghai, CHN, 200042
Website
http://www.chinaforwards.com
Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co Ltd is a comprehensive service provider in the intelligent architecture industry. It provides intelligent building project solutions for various industries. The company's smart city business covers top-level planning and design to smart city construction and operation, including smart energy conservation, smart environmental protection, smart healthcare, data center, smart community, smart campus, smart building, smart transportation and other business areas.
Executives
Liu Jin Ling Executives
Wang Dong Wei Executives
Wang Xiang Yu Executives
Zhang Tai Lin Executives
Pan Hui Directors, executives
Luo Gui Hua Independent director
Chi Wei Guo Secretary, Director
Yue Leng Executives
Wu Chao Hui Directors, executives
Ye Xiao Lei Supervisors
Zhang Bin Executives
Jin Zhen Executives
Sheng Xiang Fu Executives
Weng Zhi Yong Executives
Zhou Pei Cheng Securities Affairs Representative

Shanghai Yanhua Smartech Group Co (SZSE:002178) Headlines

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