GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp (SZSE:300729) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Loctek Ergonomic Technology (SZSE:300729) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Loctek Ergonomic Technology Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Loctek Ergonomic Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Loctek Ergonomic Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Loctek Ergonomic Technology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Loctek Ergonomic Technology Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp (SZSE:300729) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002104 SZSE:002301 SZSE:002103 SHSE:603187 SZSE:002376 SHSE:603106 SZSE:300689 SHSE:600800 SZSE:301187 SZSE:300479 TSE:7752 TSE:6448 TSE:8060 SZSE:002152 SHSE:603899 TSE:7984 BOM:544045 SZSE:300130 TSE:4902 TSE:7994
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.757 Rili Middle Road, Floor 20 Aux Building, Yinzhou District, Ningbo, CHN, 315199
Website
http://www.loctek.com
Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp is a China-based company. The company manufactures office systems and equipment including height adjustable desk, sit-stand workstation, monitor arm, TV wall mount specifically designed for plasma, LCD, and LED TVs and exercise bike in China. It also offers table mounts, wall furniture, carts, projector screen, speaker stands.
Executives
Jiang Yi Director
Gu Chao Feng Executives
Xiang Le Hong Directors, executives
Zhu Wei Directors, Directors, and Executives
Pan Yun Ping Directors, executives
Bai Mi Securities Affairs Representative
Zhang Xin Directors, executives
Wu Ya Jun Independent director

Loctek Ergonomic Technology Headlines

No Headlines