TALK (Talkspace) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Talkspace Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Talkspace Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Talkspace Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Talkspace's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Talkspace Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Talkspace Inc (NAS:TALK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

622 Third Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.talkspace.com

Talkspace Inc is a behavioral healthcare company offering access to licensed therapists, psychologists, and psychiatrists through its technology platform. It serves clients including health plans, enterprises, and individual subscribers. Therapists address various mental health conditions, while psychiatrists cater to a higher acuity demographic. Revenue stems from payor and direct-to-enterprise clients, with contracts lasting one to three years. The majority of the Company's operations and revenues are based in the United States.

Executives

Gil Margolin	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Jon R Cohen	director	C/O OPKO HEALTH, INC., 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., MIAMI FL 33137
John Charles Reilly	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Steven Dziedzic	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Michael E Hansen	director	C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Douglas L Braunstein	director, officer: President, Chairman	HUDSON EXECUTIVE CAPITAL LP, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey Crowe	director	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 800, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Hudson Executive Capital Lp	10 percent owner	C/O CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM & TAFT, LLP, 200 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Erin Boyd	officer: Chief Growth Officer	C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Jennifer Fulk	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Oren Frank	director, officer: CEO	C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Roni Frank	director, officer: Head of Clinical Services	28 LEROY STREET, TENAFLY NJ 07670
Samara H. Braunstein	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1030 FIFTH AVENUE, #5E, NEW YORK NY 10028
Madhu Pawar	director	C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025
Charles Berg	director	48 MONROE TURNPIKE, TRUMBULL CT 06611