TARA (Protara Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Protara Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Protara Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Protara Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Protara Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Protara Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Protara Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TARA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1KPA:Germany

Address

345 Park Avenue South, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10010

Website

https://www.protaratx.com

Protara Therapeutics Inc is committed to identifying and advancing transformative therapies for people with cancer and rare diseases. The company discovers, develops and delivers breakthrough therapies to people who have limited treatment options. Its portfolio includes its program, TARA-002, being developed for the treatment of lymphatic malformations, and intravenous (IV) choline chloride, a phospholipid substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of intestinal failure associated liver disease (IFALD).

Executives

Richard S Levy	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Jacqueline Zummo	officer: Sr. Vice President, Research	C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Opaleye Management Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2600, BOSTON MA 02108
Patrick Fabbio	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2 PITNEY COURT, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Jesse Shefferman	director, officer: CEO and President	C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS,INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Hannah Fry	officer: VP, Controller	345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Luke M Beshar	director	550 HILLS DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Jathin Bandari	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PROTORA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Jane Huang	director	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Martin Sebastian Olivo	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PROTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Cynthia Smith	director	508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019
Blaine Davis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Randall Marshall	10 percent owner	C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Barry P Flannelly	director	ROUTE 141 AND HENRY CLAY ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19880
Julio Casoy	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ARTARA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 LITTLE WEST 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014