TARS (Tarsus Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:TARS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

15440 Laguna Canyon Road, Suite 160, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618

Website

https://www.tarsusrx.com

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutics, starting with eye care. The company is focused on the development and commercialization of first-in-class therapeutic candidates to provide treatment for ophthalmic conditions. The company's candidate XDEMVY is a novel investigational eye drop to treat blepharitis caused by the infestation of Demodex mites, referred to as Demodex blepharitis.

Executives

Bobak R. Azamian	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Dianne C. Whitfield	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Bryan Wahl	officer: General Counsel	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Seshadri Neervannan	officer: Chief Operating Officer	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Aziz Mottiwala	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Jeffrey S Farrow	officer: See Remarks	TWO CORPORATE DRIVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Link William J Phd	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Jose M. Trevejo	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TARSUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Andrew D. Goldberg	director	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Elizabeth Yeu Lin	director	25651 ATLANTIC OCEAN DRIVE, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Leonard M. Greenstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	24562 BELGREEN PLACE, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Mark J. Holdbrook	officer: V.P., Clinical Affairs	15440 LAGUNA CANYON ROAD, SUITE 160, IRVINE CA 92618
Scott W Morrison	director	C/O GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Vivo Capital Fund Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Michael Ackermann	director, 10 percent owner	202 CARNEGIE CENTER, SUITE 109, PRINCETON NJ 08540