TCRT (Alaunos Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Alaunos Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alaunos Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alaunos Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Alaunos Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TCRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2617 Bissonnet Street, Suite 233, Houston, TX, USA, 77005

Website

https://www.alaunos.com

Alaunos Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage cellular immuno-oncology company dedicated to the treatment of solid tumors through adoptive TCR-T cell therapy. It strikes cancer at its core by engineering cell therapies that target Neoantigens arising from genomic mutations. It has a single reportable and operating segment related to biopharmaceutical research and development.

Executives

Boyle Kevin S. Sr.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BLDG 34, BOSTON MA 02129
Robert Hofmeister	director	C/O TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC., 100 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jaime Vieser	director	ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BUILDING 34, NAVY YARD PLAZA, BOSTON MA 02129
Robert W Postma	director	141 MECOX ROAD, WATER MILL NY 11976
Michael Wong	officer: VP, Finance	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BUILDING #34, BOSTON MA 02129
Abhishek K Srivastava	officer: See Remarks	C/O ALAUNOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8030 EL RIO ST., HOUSTON TX 77054
Holger Weis	director	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BLDG 34, BOSTON MA 02129
Christopher Bowden	director	38 SIDNEY STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mary Thistle	director	C/O VIACELL, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
James Huang	director	9620 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Drew Deniger	officer: VP, Research & Development	C/O ALAUNOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8030 EL RIO ST., HOUSTON TX 77054
Groot Eleanor De	officer: EVP, Operations	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BLDG 34, BOSTON MA 02129
Melinda Lackey	officer: Senior Vice President, Legal	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY INC., 8030 EL RIO ST, HOUSTON TX 77054
Heidi Hagen	director	AASTROM BIOSCIENCES, INC., 24 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Raffaele Baffa	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ZIOPHARM ONCOLOGY, INC., ONE FIRST AVENUE, PARRIS BLDG 34, BOSTON MA 02129