TETAA (Teton Advisors) Predictability Rank

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What is Teton Advisors Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Teton Advisors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Teton Advisors Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Teton Advisors Inc (OTCPK:TETAA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

189 Mason Street, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830

Website

https://www.tetonadv.com

Teton Advisors Inc is a multi-asset management company uncovering opportunities within inefficient markets, and are pioneer in micro, small, and mid-cap value investing. It offers a product suite of mutual funds and separate account strategies, With complementary investment teams expanding research coverage across the platform and marketing efforts levered against a larger organization. The company aims at value creation for both clients and shareholders. The Company operates in one business segment which is the investment advisory and asset management business.

Executives

Westwood Management Corp /tx	10 percent owner	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Howard F. Ward	director	401 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, RYE NY 10580
Jeffrey M Farber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, 440 LINCOLN STREET, WORCESTER MA 01653
Mario J Gabelli	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Bruce N Alpert	director, officer: Chairman	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ggcp, Inc.	10 percent owner	189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Douglas R Jamieson	director	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Mjg Iv Limited Partnership	10 percent owner
Edward T Tokar	director
Nicholas F. Galluccio	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O TETON ADVISORS, INC., 401 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, RYE NY 10580
Alfred W. Fiore	director	C/O TETON ADVISORS, INC., 401 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, RYE NY 10580

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