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Thunder Mountain Gold (Thunder Mountain Gold) Predictability Rank


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What is Thunder Mountain Gold Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Thunder Mountain Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Thunder Mountain Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Thunder Mountain Gold (Thunder Mountain Gold) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Thunder Mountain Gold Inc (OTCPK:THMG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SRGZ SILS MAGE AMNP CGLD AHNR AUMN ISX:AMMN JSE:AMS SZSE:000975 MIC:ALRS LSE:FRES JSE:IMP LIM:BUENAVC1 ISX:MBMA TSX:TFPM HL JSE:NPH TSX:CGG CAS:MNG
Traded in Other Exchanges
THM:Canada
Address
11770 W. President Drive, Suite F, Boise, ID, USA, 83713
Website
https://www.thundermountaingold.com
Thunder Mountain Gold Inc is a mineral exploration stage company. It is engaged in exploring mining properties that have the potential to produce gold, silver, base metals, and other commodities. The company holds interests in the South Mountain and Trout Creek Project. The current land package at South Mountain consists of 17 patented mining claims encompassing approximately 326 acres, 21 unpatented mining lode claims covering approximately 290 acres, and approximately 489 acres of leased private land. In addition, the project owns 360 acres of private land (mill site) not contiguous with the mining claims. All holdings are in the South Mountain Mining District, Owyhee County, Idaho.
Executives
Eric T Jones director, officer: CFO 5248 W. CHINDEN BLVD, BOISE ID 83714
James A Sabala director 11770 W. PRESIDENT DR. STE F, BOISE WA 83713
Douglas J Glaspey director C/O US GEOTHERMAL INC., 390 E PARKCENTER BLVD, SUITE 250, BOISE ID 83706
Ralph Noyes director 6523 E. KYONG COURT, POST FALLS ID 83854
Larry Kornze director 11770 W. PRESIDENT DRIVE STE F, BOISE ID 83713
Paul Albert Beckman other: Investor Relations 3585 WEST STATE STREET, EAGLE ID 83616
Larry Thackery officer: CFO 1832 E BOWSTRING, MERIDIAN ID 83642
Robert Llee Chapman director 4601 DTC BLVD STE 750, DENVER CO 80237
James Ellis Collord director, officer: President 1239 PARKVIEW DRIVE, ELKO NV 89801