TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals (TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals (TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals Corp (OTCPK:TLOG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

343 Phoenixville Pike, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355

Website

http://www.tetralogicpharma.com

TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in developing novel small molecule therapeutics in oncology.

Executives

Hudson Bay Capital Management Lp	other: See Remarks	28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Lazard Asset Management Llc	other: See Remarks	30 ROCKEFELLER PLZ, 56TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10112
Nomura Holdings Inc	other: See Remarks	1-13-1 NIHONBASHI, CHUO-KU, TOKYO M0 103-8645
Whitebox Multi-strategy Partners Lp	other: See Remarks	3033 EXCELSIOR BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Pandora Select Partners, L.p.	other: See Remarks	3033 EXCELSIOR BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox General Partner Llc	other: See Remarks	3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Highbridge Capital Management Llc	other: See Remarks	277 PARK AVE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10172
Sander Gerber	other: See Remarks	C/O HUDSON BAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 28 HAVEMEYER PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Whitebox Concentrated Convertible Arbitrage Partners, L.p.	other: See Remarks	3033 EXCELSIOR BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Whitebox Advisors Llc	other: See Remarks	3033 EXCELSIOR BLVD., SUITE 500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Patrick Hutchison	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O BIOSPECIFICS TECHNOLOGIES CORP 2 RIGHTER PARKWAY SUITE 200 WILMINGTON DE 19803
Clarus Ventures Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Clarus Lifesciences Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Clarus Ventures Ii Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Nicholas Simon	10 percent owner	101 MAIN STREET SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142

TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals (TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals) Headlines

No Headlines