TLPH (Talphera) Predictability Rank

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What is Talphera Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Talphera Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Talphera Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Talphera Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Talphera Inc (NAS:TLPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

R5XA:Germany

Address

1850 Gateway Drive, Suite 175, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.talphera.com

Talphera Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for use in medically supervised settings. The Company's nafamostat product candidates include Niyad and LTX-608. Its portfolio consists of nafamostat product candidates and pre-filled syringe product candidates.

Executives

Vincent J. Angotti	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Raffi Asadorian	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Pamela P Palmer	director, officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Jill Marie Broadfoot	director	3545 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Marina Bozilenko	director	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Adrian Adams	director	C/O AUXILIUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19355
Mark G Edwards	director	ALLOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11080 CIRCLEPOINT ROAD, SUITE 200, WESTMINSTER CO 80020
Badri N Dasu	officer: Chief Engineering Officer	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Lawrence G Hamel	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Mark A Wan	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THREE ARCH PARTNERS, 3200 ALPINE RD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Three Arch Associates Iii Lp	10 percent owner	C/O THREE ARCH PARTNERS, 3200 ALPINE ROAD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Wilfred E Jaeger	10 percent owner	C/O THREE ARCH PARTNERS, 3200 ALPINE RD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Three Arch Partners Iii Lp	10 percent owner
Three Arch Partners Iv Lp	10 percent owner
Three Arch Associates Iv Lp	10 percent owner	3200 ALPINE ROAD, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028