Timberline Resources (Timberline Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Timberline Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Timberline Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Timberline Resources (Timberline Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Timberline Resources Corp (OTCPK:TLRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TBR:Canada

Address

101 East Lakeside Avenue, Coeur d'Alene, ID, USA, 83814

Website

https://www.timberlineresources.co

Timberline Resources Corp is a mineral exploration company. It is principally engaged in the business of exploring precious metal deposits and advancing them toward production. The company holds interests in Eureka, Paiute, Silverado, and Seven Trough properties, all located in Nevada.

Executives

Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund	10 percent owner	32 MOLESWORTH STREET, DUBLIN L2 DO2 Y512
Jupiter Investment Management Ltd	10 percent owner	THE ZIG ZAG BUILDING, 70 VICTORIA STREET, LONDON X0 SW1E 6SQ
Donald James Mcdowell	director	2131 STONE HILL CIRCLE, RENO NV 89519
William Fuller Matlack	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TIMBERLINE RESOURCES CORP., 101 EAST LAKESIDE AVENUE, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83814
Crescat Portfolio Management Llc	10 percent owner	1560 BROADWAY, SUITE 2270, DENVER CO 80202
Steven A. Osterberg	officer: Vice-President, Exploration	C/O TIMBERLINE RESOURCES, 101 E LAKESIDE AVE., COEUR D' ALENE ID 83814
David C. Mathewson	director	1265 MESA DRIVE, FERNLEY NV 89408
Ted Riley Sharp	officer: CFO	714 WHISPERWOOD COURT, NAMPA ID 83686
Pamela L Saxton	director	4836 W FAIR AVE, LITTLETON CO 80123
R. Patrick Highsmith	director, officer: President	6852 S. CLAYTON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80122
Quinton Todd Hennigh	director	901 E 9TH AVENUE, LONGMONT CO 80504
Steven East Gilbertson	director	1161 S. CLAYTON ST, DENVER CO 80210
Guilio Bonifacio	director	1238 - 200 GRANVILLE STREEET, VANCOUVER A1 V8C 1S4
Randal Lavon Hardy	director, officer: CEO and CFO	1611 N MOLTER ROAD, SUITE 201, LIBERTY LAKE WA 99019
Paul H Zink	director	225 UNION BLVD, SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80228