TMDX (TransMedics Group) Predictability Rank


TMDX TransMedics Group Inc TMDX
69 GF Score
Price $77.75
GF Value $166.22
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 9 Warning Signs
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What is TransMedics Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TransMedics Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

TMDX
69GF Score
TransMedics Group Inc TMDX
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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TransMedics Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is TransMedics Group (TMDX) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, TransMedics Group stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $77.75 is trading 53.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $166.22. GuruFocus considers TransMedics Group to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for TMDX:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $166.22 vs. price of $77.75 (53.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TMDX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

TransMedics Group Business Description

Address 200 Minuteman Road, Andover, MA, USA, 01810
TransMedics Group Inc is a commercial-stage medical technology company transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients across multiple disease states. It has developed the Organ Care System (OCS) to comprehensively address the limitations of cold storage. The OCS is a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. The company has developed and is commercializing a proprietary system to preserve and deliver human organs for transplant in a near-physiologic condition to address the limitations of cold storage organ preservation.
69GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$77.75
Price
$166.22
GF Value