TOFB (Tofutti Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Tofutti Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tofutti Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tofutti Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tofutti Brands Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Tofutti Brands Inc (OTCPK:TOFB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

105 Newfield Avenue, Suite H, Edison, NJ, USA, 088337

Website

https://www.tofutti.com

Tofutti Brands Inc is engaged in the development, production, and marketing of TOFUTTI brand non-dairy frozen desserts and other food products. It offers soy-based products, plant-based, dairy vegan, frozen desserts, soy-based cheeses and spreads, and other frozen food products. The company sells its dairy-free frozen dessert products, frozen entrees, and soy-cheese products in markets of the United States, including Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. It distributes all of its products by common carrier or by allowing customers to pick up products from outside storage facilities. Geographically, the company operates in Americas, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific and Africa, of which maximum revenue is derived from Americas.

Executives

Efraim Mintz	director	TOFUTTI BRANDS INC., 50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 07106
Joseph N Himy	director	13-01 POLLITT DRIVE, FAIR LAWN NJ 07410
Scott Korman	director	C/O NASHONE, INC., 175 ELM ROAD, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07361
Neal S Axelrod	director	C/O TOFUTTI BRANDS INC., 50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 07016
Steven Kass	officer: Chief Financial Officer	50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 07016
Philip Gotthelf	director	C/O TOFUTTI BRANDS INC., 50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 07016
Aron Forem	director	C/O WUHL SHAFMAN LIEBERMAN CO., 52-62 CORNELIA STREET, NEWARK NJ 07105
Joseph K Fischer	director	50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 7016
Franklyn H Snitow	director	575 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jeremy Wiesen	director
Reuben Rapoport	director, officer: Director-Product Development
David Mintz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & Chairman	50 JACKSON DRIVE, CRANFORD NJ 07016