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TOMI Environmental Solutions (TOMI Environmental Solutions) Predictability Rank


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What is TOMI Environmental Solutions Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TOMI Environmental Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TOMI Environmental Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TOMI Environmental Solutions (TOMI Environmental Solutions) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » TOMI Environmental Solutions Inc (NAS:TOMZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PGTK EESH LIQT CHNR CLWT FTEK EAWD CLIR QWTR MEEC VLTO XBRU:UMI ZWS FSS TSE:6370 SZSE:300390 SHSE:600388 OSTO:MTRS SHSE:603279 ATMU
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8430 Spires Way, Frederick, MD, USA, 21701
Website
https://www.tomimist.com
TOMI Environmental Solutions Inc is a global bacteria decontamination and infectious disease control company, providing environmental solutions for indoor surface decontamination through the manufacturing, sales, service and licensing of its SteraMist brand of products, including SteraMist BIT, a low percentage (7.8%) hydrogen peroxide-based fog or mist that uses Binary Ionization Technology (BIT). Its product portfolio includes SteraMist Surface Unit; SteraMist Environment System; The SteraMist Total Disinfection Cart; SteraMist Select Surface Unit; Stainless Steel 90 Degree Applicator; iHP Plasma Decontamination Chamber; SteraMist Custom Engineered System (CES); and iHP Corporate Service Decontamination.
Executives
Shane Dr. Halden Stuart director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 8430 SPIRES WAY, FREDERICK MD 21701
Nick Jennings officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 8430 SPIRES WAY, SUITE N, FREDERICK MD 21701
Boh Soon Lim director 56 YUK TONG AVENUE, SINGAPORE U0 596357
Sok Huy Lau 10 percent owner 96 ROBINSON ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 068899
Elissa Jessica Shane officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 8430 SPIRES WAY, SUITE N, FREDERICK MD 21701
Environmental Solutions Holding Pte. Ltd 10 percent owner 96 ROBINSON ROAD #11-04, SIF BUILDING, SINGAPORE U0 068899
Arise Asset Management Pte Ltd 10 percent owner 8 WILKIE ROAD, #03-01 WILKIE EDGE, SINGAPORE U0 228095
Ron E Ainsworth director 4651 BRIGHTON RD, CORONA DEL MAR CA 92625
Kelly Anderson director C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 9454 WILSHIRE BLVD., R-1, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Robert Wotczak officer: President C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 5111 PEGASUS COURT, FREDERICK MD 21704
Walter C Johnsen director C/O ACME UNITED CORP, 60 ROUND HILL ROAD, FAIRFIELD CT 06824
Edward J Fred director C/O CPI AEROSTRUCTRUES INC, 200A EXECUTIVE DRIVE, EDGEWOOD NY 11717
Harold Paul director HAROLD PAUL, LLC, PO BOX 33812, SANTA FE NM 87594
Norris Gearhart officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 9454 WILSHIRE BLVD., R-1, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212