TPG Pace Energy Holdings (TPG Pace Energy Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is TPG Pace Energy Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TPG Pace Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TPG Pace Energy Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TPG Pace Energy Holdings (TPG Pace Energy Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » TPG Pace Energy Holdings Corp (NYSE:TPGE.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MGY:USA

Address

Nine Greenway Plaza, Suite 1300, Houston, TX, USA, 77046

Website

https://www.magnoliaoilgas.com

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid (NGL) reserves. The Company's oil and natural gas properties are located in Karnes County and the Giddings area in South Texas, where the Company targets the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. Its objective is to generate stock market value over the long term through consistent organic production growth, high full-cycle operating margins, and an efficient capital program with short economic paybacks. The company's operating segment is acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas properties located in the United States.

Executives

Timothy D. Yang	officer: EVP - General Counsel & Sec	1415 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Stephen I Chazen	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	1700 E. PUTNAM AVE, SUITE 500, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
Christopher G Stavros	officer: Executive VP, CFO	1230 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Valerie Chase	officer: VP - CAO & Controller	SOUTH 6325 RAINBOW BOULEVARD, SUITE 420, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Angela M Busch	director	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Edward P Djerejian	director	2027 SUNSET BOULEVARD, HOUSTON TX 77005
James R Larson	director	CSI COMPRESSCO LP, 1735 HUGHES LANDING BLVD STE 200, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Dan F Smith	director	1221 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010
Arcilia Acosta	director	LEGACYTEXAS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 5851 LEGACY CIRCLE, PLANO TX 75024
John B Walker	director, 10 percent owner	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Steve Millican	officer: SVP - Operations	NINE GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77046
Enervest Energy Institutional Fund Xiv-wic, L.p.	10 percent owner	1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77002
Enervest Energy Institutional Fund Xiv-3a, L.p.	10 percent owner	1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77002
Enervest Energy Institutional Fund Xiv-2a, L.p.	10 percent owner	1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77002
Enervest Energy Institutional Fund Xiv-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77002