TPHS (Trinity Place Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Trinity Place Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Trinity Place Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Trinity Place Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Trinity Place Holdings Inc (OTCPK:TPHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

340 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10173

Website

https://www.tphs.com

Trinity Place Holdings Inc is a real estate holding, investment, and asset management company. It is engaged in owning, investing in, managing, developing or redeveloping real estate assets and real estate-related securities. It also controls a range of intellectual property assets focused on the consumer sector, including its online marketplace at FilenesBasement.com, its rights to the Stanley Blacker brand, and the intellectual property associated with the Running of the Brides event. The company generates revenue from Rental revenue, Other Income, and Sales of residential condominium units.

Executives

Mfp Partners Lp	10 percent owner, other: See remarks below	909 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, New York NY 10022
Bartels Patrick J Jr	director	C/O WCI COMMUNITIES, INC., 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Matthew Messinger,	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE SYMS WAY, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Alan Cohen	director	10 REUTEN DRIVE, CLOSTER NJ 07624
Joanne Minieri	director	100 VENTERANS MEMORIAL HIGHWAY, 11TH FL, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Jennifer C. Price	10 percent owner, other: See remarks	C/O MFP INVESTORS LLC, 909 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey B Citrin	director	950 THIRD AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven Kahn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	717 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1303, NEW YORK NY 10022
Keith M Pattiz	director	C/O MCDERMOTT WILL & EMERY, 340 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10173-1922
Alexander C Matina	director	C/O MFP INVESTORS, LLC, 667 MADISON AVE, 25TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10065
Richard Guy Pyontek	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1 SYMS WAY, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Marcato International Master Fund, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O OGIER FIDUCIARY SERVICES (CAYMAN)LTD, 89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9007
Marcato Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Marcato Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Ds Fund I Llc	10 percent owner	7274 FISHER ISLAND DRIVE, MIAMI BEACH FL 33109-0760