TPR (Tapestry) Predictability Rank

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What is Tapestry Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tapestry Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tapestry Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tapestry Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Tapestry Inc (NYSE:TPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TPR:Mexico 0LD5:UK COY:Germany COY:Germany TPRY34:Brazil

Address

10 Hudson Yards, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.tapestry.com

Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman are New York City-based Tapestry's fashion and accessory brands. The firm's products are sold through about 1,400 company-operated stores, wholesale channels, and e-commerce in North America (64% of fiscal 2024 sales), Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. Coach (76% of sales) is best known for affordable luxury leather products. Kate Spade (20%) is known for colorful patterns and graphics. Both Coach and Kate Spade specialize in women's handbags and accessories, 69% of Tapestry's fiscal 2024 sales. Stuart Weitzman (4%) generates virtually all its revenue from women's luxury footwear.

Executives

Todd Kahn	officer: SVP and General Counsel	516 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
David E Howard	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Scott A. Roe	officer: CFO and Head of Strategy	105 CORPORATE CENTER BLVD., GREENSBORO NC 27408
Manesh Dadlani	officer: VP, Controller and PAO	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Denise Kulikowsky	officer: Chief People Officer	80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523
Lau Alan Ka Ming	director	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Thomas A. Glaser	officer: Chief Operations Officer	10 HUDSON YARDS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Sarah Dunn	officer: SVP, Human Resources	516 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Johanna W. Faber	director	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Annabelle Yu Long	director	516 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Ivan Menezes	director	C/O TAPESTRY, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Thomas Greco	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Pamela Lifford	director	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
John P Bilbrey	director
Elizabeth Fraser	officer: CEO & Brand Pres. Kate Spade	10 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001