What is TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2755 Sand Hill Road, Suite 150, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. Its investment objective is to maximize its total return to stockholders in the form of current income and, to a lesser extent, capital appreciation. The fund focuses on companies operating in the fields of biofuels, business applications software, wireless communications equipment, e-commerce, clothing and accessories, conferencing equipment and services, personal goods, financial institutions and services, entertainment, mixed retailing, and healthcare services. Geographically, all the operations of the firm function through the region of the United states.
Executives
| Sajal Srivastava |
director, officer: See Remarks |
2755 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Katherine J Park |
director |
2755 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Stephen Cassani |
director |
700 EMERSON STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Cynthia M. Fornelli |
director |
2755 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Kimberley H Vogel |
director |
63 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, CHICO CA 95973 |
| Christopher M. Mathieu |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032 |
| Gilbert Ahye |
director |
200 VESEY ST, NEW YORK NY 10285 |
| Christopher Gastelu |
officer: See Remarks |
920 WOODLAND AVENUE, ORADELL NJ 07649 |
| James Labe |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2755 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 150, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Steven Bird |
director |
525 UNIVERSITY AVE, SUITE 225, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Andrew Olson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O HERCULES TECHNOLOGY GROWTH CAPITAL, 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Harold F Zagunis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
ONE BELVEDERE, SUITE 300, MILL VALLEY CA 94941 |
| Boathouse Row Ii L P |
10 percent owner |
450 SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRAN CA 94111 |
| Philadelphia Financial Management Of San Francisco, Llc |
10 percent owner |
450 SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Boathouse Row I, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
450 SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
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