Trinity Capital (Trinity Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Trinity Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Trinity Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Trinity Capital (Trinity Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Trinity Capital Inc (NAS:TRIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

9F7:Germany 9F7:Germany

Address

1 N. 1st Street, Suite 302, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85004

Website

https://www.trinitycap.com

Trinity Capital Inc is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. The company is engaged in providing debt, including loans and equipment financings, to growth-stage companies, including venture-backed companies and companies with institutional equity investors. Its equipment financings involve loans for general or specific use, including acquiring equipment, secured by the equipment or other assets of the portfolio company.

Executives

Kyle Steven Brown	director, officer: Director, President & CIO	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Richard P Hamada	director	2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Irma Lockridge	director	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 1 N. 1ST STREET, 3RD FLOOR, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Ronald E. Estes	director	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Steve Louis Brown	director, officer: Chairman and CEO (1)	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Ronald Kundich	officer: Senior VP (1)	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
David Michael Lund	officer: Executive VP (1)	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE SUITE 700, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Gerald Harder	officer: Senior VP (1)	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Michael Zacharia	director	C/O J. C. PENNEY COMPANY, INC., 6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Thomas P. Majewski	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eagle Point Credit Management Llc	10 percent owner	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sarah Stanton	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Scott H Harvey	officer: CCO & General Counsel	C/O HERCULES CAPITAL, INC., 400 HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 310, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Susan Echard	officer: CFO, Treasurer & Secretary (1)	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226
Edmund G. Zito	director	C/O TRINITY CAPITAL INC., 3075 WEST RAY ROAD, SUITE 525, CHANDLER AZ 85226