What is Trevi Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Trevi Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Trevi Therapeutics (Trevi Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
195 Church Street, 16th Floor, New Haven, CT, USA, 06510
Trevi Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of the investigational therapy Haduvio (oral nalbuphine ER) for the treatment of chronic cough in adults with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, or IPF, and other chronic cough indications, and for the treatment of prurigo nodularis. Haduvio is an oral extended-release formulation of nalbuphine.
Executives
| Lisa Delfini |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TREVI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 195 CHURCH STREET, FL. 14, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| Farrell Simon |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O TREVI THERAPEUTICS, INC., 195 CHURCH STREET, FLOOR 14, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
| David J Clark |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
131 HARTWELL AVE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Tpg Gp A, Llc |
10 percent owner |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| Scott D Sandell |
10 percent owner |
|
| Carmen Chang |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| New Enterprise Associates 16, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093 |
| Paul Edward Walker |
director |
1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093 |
| Forest Baskett |
10 percent owner |
|
| Peter W. Sonsini |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Florence Anthony A. Jr. |
10 percent owner |
5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Ali Behbahani |
10 percent owner |
5425 WISCONSIN AVE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Mohamad Makhzoumi |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Jon Winkelried |
10 percent owner |
C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Christopher Galletta |
officer: See Remarks |
195 CHURCH STREET, FLOOR 14,, NEW HAVEN CT 06510 |
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