TRVN (Trevena) Predictability Rank

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What is Trevena Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Trevena Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Trevena Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Trevena Inc (OTCPK:TRVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

955 Chesterbrook Boulevard, Suite 110, Chesterbrook, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.trevena.com

Trevena Inc is an American biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel medicines for patients affected by central nervous system, or CNS, disorders.

Executives

Mark Corrigan	director
Mark Demitrack	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Robert T Yoder	officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer	955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 110, SUITE 200, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Carrie L. Bourdow	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O TREVENA, INC., 1018 WEST 8TH AVENUE, SUITE A, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Patricia M. Drake	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1800, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Barry Shin	officer: SVP, CFO	C/O TREVENA, INC., 955 CHESTERBROOK BLVD, SUITE 110, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Marvin Johnson	director	C/O TREVENA, INC., 955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, STE. 110, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Barbara Yanni	director	1018 W. 8TH AVENUE, SUITE A, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Moulder Leon O Jr	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jason Raleigh Nunn	director	1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Scott Braunstein	director	C/O ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3891 RANCHERO DRIVE, SUITE 150, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Michael R Dougherty	director	C/O ADOLOR CORP, 700 PENNSYLVANIA DR, EXTON PA 19341
Anne M. Phillips	director	C/O TREVENA, INC., 1018 WEST 8TH AVENUE, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Scott Applebaum	officer: CLCO; SVP, Regulatory Affairs	C/O TREVENA INC., 955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 110, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
John P. Hamill	officer: Int. Prin. Fin. Off. and PAO	4092 NEW HOPE ROAD, FURLONG PA 18925