GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Turnstone Biologics Corp (NAS:TSBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Turnstone Biologics (Turnstone Biologics) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is Turnstone Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Turnstone Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Turnstone Biologics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Turnstone Biologics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Turnstone Biologics (Turnstone Biologics) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Turnstone Biologics Corp (NAS:TSBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HRGN GLYC SGMT HOWL KOD ARMP VERU CVM SLNCF ATOS OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA XBRU:ARGX HKSE:02269 BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9310 Athena Circle, Suite 300, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037
Website
https://www.turnstonebio.com
Turnstone Biologics Corp is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing new medicines to treat and cure patients with solid tumors. The company is pioneering a differentiated approach to tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, or TILs, a clinically validated technology for treating solid tumors. It is developing next-generation TIL therapies by selecting the most potent and tumor-reactive T cells, which are referred to as Selected TILs. TILs are a type of cell therapy that harnesses the patient's own immune cells to target their own tumors. TIL therapy involves the isolation of lymphocytes from the patient's tumor, expansion of the isolated cells outside the body, and then infusion of the cells back into the patient.
Executives
Davis Jerel director, 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 3630, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Ventures V, Llc 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Robert J Gould director C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Sammy J. Farah director, officer: President & CEO C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Saryah Azmat officer: Chief Business Officer C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Venkat Ramanan officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Campisi Peter Joseph Jr. officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Vijay Chiruvolu officer: Int. Chief Technology Officer C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Versant Vantage Ii Gp, L.p. 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Vantage Ii Gp-gp, Llc 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Versant Vantage Ii, L.p. 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kanya Rajangam director C/O SENTI BIOSCIENCES, INC., 2 CORPORATE DRIVE, FIRST FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Versant Ventures V Gp-gp (canada), Inc. 10 percent owner ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Michael F. Burgess director, officer: Interim Chief Medical Officer C/O SYNLOGIC, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 402, CAMRIDGE MA 02142
Stewart Abbot officer: Chief Scientific Officer C/O TURNSTONE BIOLOGICS CORP., 9310 ATHENA CIRCLE, SUITE 300, LA JOLLA CA 92037