Totetsu Kogyo Co (TSE:1835) Predictability Rank

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

TSE:1835 Totetsu Kogyo Co Ltd TSE:1835
75 GF Score
Price 円4,000.00
GF Value 円3,741.11
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Totetsu Kogyo Co Predictability Rank?

1.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Totetsu Kogyo Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

TSE:1835
75GF Score
Totetsu Kogyo Co Ltd TSE:1835
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Totetsu Kogyo Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Totetsu Kogyo Co (TSE:1835) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Totetsu Kogyo Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円4,000.00 is trading 6.9% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円3,741.11. GuruFocus considers Totetsu Kogyo Co to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:1835:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: 円3,741.11 vs. price of 円4,000.00 (6.9% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 75/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:1835 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Totetsu Kogyo Co Business Description

Address 4th Floor, JR Shinanomachi Building, 34 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 160-8589
Totetsu Kogyo Co Ltd is a construction company. Its operating segments are Civil Engineering, Railway track maintenance, Architectural and Environmental segment. It undertakes various projects such as construction, renovation, reinforcement of elevated bridges and railway platform edge doors for passenger protection along with building new railway tracks for the Shinkansen, public and private sectors. The company is also engaged in construction and maintenance of station buildings for railway lines, apartment houses, office buildings, hotels, shops, and schools. Additionally, it also provides environmental technology and services, like construction of solar power generation systems, greening of buildings, and implementing energy conservation systems for air conditioning.
75GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:1835

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円4,000.00
Price
円3,741.11
GF Value