Hokuriku Electric Power Co (TSE:9505) Predictability Rank


TSE:9505 Hokuriku Electric Power Co Inc TSE:9505
64 GF Score
Price 円909.30
GF Value 円815.45
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Hokuriku Electric Power Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hokuriku Electric Power Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

TSE:9505
64GF Score
Hokuriku Electric Power Co Inc TSE:9505
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Hokuriku Electric Power Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Hokuriku Electric Power Co (TSE:9505) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hokuriku Electric Power Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円909.30 is trading 11.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円815.45. GuruFocus considers Hokuriku Electric Power Co to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:9505:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: 円815.45 vs. price of 円909.30 (11.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 64/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:9505 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Hokuriku Electric Power Co Business Description

Other Exchanges 6HO:Germany
Address 15-1 Ushijima-cho, Toyama, JPN, 930-8686
Hokuriku Electric Power Co Inc is an electric utility company that functions as a regulated monopoly in the Hokuriku region of Japan's main island of Honshu. Hokuriku Electric supplies electricity through power generation, transmission, and distribution. To do this, the company operates a portfolio of hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power plants located throughout Japan's Hokuriku region. Most of the total energy produced by Hokuriku Electric comes from its thermal facilities that utilize coal fuel sources. The company primarily generates revenue through the sale of electric power to residential and large-scale industrial customers in the machinery, chemical, and textile sectors.
64GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:9505

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円909.30
Price
円815.45
GF Value