Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN) Predictability Rank

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What is Ivanhoe Mines Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ivanhoe Mines Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ivanhoe Mines Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (TSX:IVN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IVPAF:USA IYAA:Germany

Address

999 Canada Place, Suite 606, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 3E1

Website

https://www.ivanhoemines.com

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is a diversified mining company focused on advancing its four principal projects in Southern Africa namely the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, a large, high-grade, stratiform copper deposit, Platreef Project, where the Company discovered thick and high-grade palladium, nickel, platinum, rhodium, copper and gold deposit, The Kipushi Project, a past-producing, high-grade underground zinc-copper-germanium-silverlead mine, The Western Foreland Exploration Project, a group of exploration licences. The Company has four reportable segments, including the Platreef property, Kamoa Holding joint venture, Kipushi properties, and the Company's treasury offices.

Executives

Delphine Traoré	Director
Mary Vincelli	Senior Officer
Olivier Binyingo	Senior Officer
Chao (peter) Zhou	Senior Officer
Jinghe Chen	Director
Martie Cloete	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Peter Meredith	Director
Citic Metal Africa Investments Limited	10% Security Holder
Setha Patricia Makhesha	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Stephen Ralph Amos	Senior Officer
Louis Kabamba Watum	Director or Senior Officer of Insider or Subsidiary (other than in 4,5,6), Senior Officer
Pierre Joubert	Senior Officer
Alexander Pickard	Senior Officer
Martie Janse Van Rensburg	Director
Guy Jacques De Selliers De Moranville	Director

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