What is T2 Biosystems Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
T2 Biosystems Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
T2 Biosystems (T2 Biosystems) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
101 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421
T2 Biosystems Inc provides rapid in vitro diagnostic tests to hospitals and laboratories. The company's core technology is T2 Magnetic Resonance (T2MR) technology, which can detect a variety of molecular targets directly from whole blood. T2MR technology enables the T2Dx system, which is fully automated from patient sample to result for its panels focused on bacterial and fungal infections that could cause sepsis, and its pipeline panel for Lyme disease.
Executives
| Cr Group L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund (a) L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O CAPITAL ROYALTY L.P., 1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Crg Partners Iii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Crg Partners Iii - Parallel Fund B (cayman) L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Crg Partners Iii (cayman) Lev Aiv I L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Crg Partners Iii (cayman) Unlev Aiv I L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1000 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Michael Terrence Gibbs |
officer: General Counsel |
12 STONEY BROOK RD., HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| John M Sprague |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
101 HARTWELL AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Sperzel John J Iii |
director, officer: See Remarks |
61 CRESTVIEW LANE, BRUNSWICK ME 04011 |
| Brett A. Giffin |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
101 HARTWELL AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Alec Barclay |
officer: SVP, Operations |
101 HARTWELL AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Aparna Ahuja |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
101 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Laura Lee Adams |
director |
101 HARTWELL AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Anthony Pare |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
HAEMONETICS CORPORATION, 400 WOOD ROAD, BRAINTREE MA 02184 |
| Thierry Bernard |
director |
101 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
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