TXG (10x Genomics) Predictability Rank

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What is 10x Genomics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

10x Genomics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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10x Genomics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » 10x Genomics Inc (NAS:TXG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0A88:UK 1KJ:Germany

Address

6230 Stoneridge Mall Road, Pleasanton, CA, USA, 94588

Website

https://www.10xgenomics.com

10x Genomics Inc is a life science technology company based in the United States. Its solutions include instruments, consumables, and software for analyzing biological systems. The company's integrated solutions include instruments, consumables, and software for analyzing biological systems at a resolution and scale that matches the complexity of biology. Its product offerings include a Chromium platform comprising microfluidic chips and related consumables, Chromium X series, Visium and Xenium platforms, and others, which are predominantly used for the study of biological components. Geographically, the company derives maximum revenue from the United States and the rest from Americas (excluding the United States), Europe, Middle East and Africa, China, and Asia-Pacific (excluding China).

Executives

Serge Saxonov	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10X GENOMICS, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Benjamin J. Hindson	director, officer: See Remarks	10X GENOMICS, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Justin J. Mcanear	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10X GENOMICS, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
James Wilbur	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O 10X GENOMICS, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588-3260
John R Stuelpnagel	director	10X GENOMICS, INC., 6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Mathai Mammen	director	THERAVANCE,INC., 901 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bradford Crutchfield	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	6230 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94547
Sridhar Kosaraju	director	1351 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Bryan E Roberts	director	C/O VENROCK ASSOCIATES, 2494 SAND HILL ROAD STE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Venrock Management Vi, Llc	10 percent owner	3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Venrock Associates Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Venrock Partners Vi, L.p.	10 percent owner	3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Venrock Partners Management Vi, Llc	10 percent owner	3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Foresite Capital Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Paladin Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	2020 K STREET, NW, SUITE 620, WASHINGTON DC 20006