TZOO (Travelzoo) Predictability Rank

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What is Travelzoo Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Travelzoo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Travelzoo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Travelzoo Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Travelzoo (NAS:TZOO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TXM1:Germany TXM1:Germany

Address

590 Madison Avenue, 35th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.travelzoo.com

Travelzoo acts as a publisher of travel and entertainment offers. It operates in four segments. Travelzoo North America segment, which is the key revenue driver, consists of operations in Canada and the U.S.; Travelzoo Europe segment consists of operations in France, Germany, Spain, and the U.K.; Jack's Flight Club segment consists of subscription revenue from premium members to access and receive flight deals from Jack's Flight Club via email or via Android or Apple mobile applications; and New Initiatives consists of Travelzoo's licensing activities in Asia Pacific territories. It derives its revenue through advertising fees including listing fees paid by travel, entertainment, and local businesses to advertise their offers on the company's media properties.

Executives

Azzurro Capital Inc	10 percent owner	C/O MOORE STEPHENS, PO BOX 743, SUITE 5, WATERGARDENS 4 J1 GX11 1AA
Holger Bartel	officer: Executive Vice President
Christina Sindoni Ciocca	director	590 MADISON AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ralph Bartel	director, 10 percent owner	CASELLA POSTALE 823, 6612 ASCONA V8 6612
Lijun Qi	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	800 W EL CAMINO REAL, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Ralph Bartel 2005 Trust	10 percent owner	C/O FEDELTA TRUST LIMITED, 29/31 ATHOL STREET, OMAR HOUSE BLDG, ISLE OF MAN X0 1M11LB
Lisa Su	officer: Controller	924 AURA CT, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Christian Alexander Smart	other: Travelzoo GM, Germany	PARISER PLATZ 4A, BERLIN 2M 10117
Rachel Barnett	director, officer: General Counsel	69 VALLEY ROAD, KATONAH NY 10536
Carrie Liqun Liu	director	2#1707 NO.6 ZUOJIAZHUANGZHONGJIE, BEIJING F4 100028
Michael Stitt	officer: President, North America	590 MADISON AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hong (hong Wei) Vivian	officer: President, Asia Pacific	ROOM 102, BLDG 5, NO.169, MENGZI ROAD, HUANGPU DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200023
Caroline J Tsay	director	C/O ROSETTA STONE INC., 1919 NORTH LYNN STREET, 7TH FLOOR, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Beatrice Tarka	director	800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 275, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040
Simon Talling-smith	officer: President, Products&Emerg.Biz.	558 VALLEY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94131