VATE (Innovate) Predictability Rank

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What is Innovate Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Innovate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Innovate Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Innovate Corp (NYSE:VATE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PST0:Germany

Address

295 Madison Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.innovatecorp.com

Innovate Corp is a diversified holding company that has a portfolio of subsidiaries in a variety of operating segments which are; The infrastructure segment is comprised of DBM Global Inc, a fully integrated industrial construction, structural steel, and facility maintenance provider that provides fabrication and erection of structural steel and heavy steel plate services, The Life Sciences segment is comprised of Pansend Life Sciences which seeks to develop products to treat early osteoarthritis of the knee and aesthetic and medical technologies for the skin, and Spectrum segment is comprised of HC2 Broadcasting Holdings Inc which operates over-the-air broadcasting station across the United States.

Executives

Paul Voigt	officer: Sr. Managing Dir, Investments	460 HERNDON PARKWAY, SUITE 150, HERNDON VA 20170
Michael J. Sena	officer: Chief Financial Officer	450 PARK AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wayne Jr Barr	director	ANACOMP INC, 15378 AVENUE OF SCIENCE, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Brian Steven Goldstein	director	295 MADISON AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Amy Marie Wilkinson	director	295 MADISON AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Shelly Lombard	director	44 MORSE AVENUE, BLOOMFIELD NJ 07003
Avram A Glazer	director	C/O WOODS OVIATT GILMAN LLP, 700 CROSSROADS BUILDING, ROCHESTER NY 14614
Suzi R Herbst	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O HC2 HOLDINGS, INC., 450 PARK AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph Anthony Ferraro	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Corp Sec	56 EMILY ROAD, FAR HILLS FL 07931
Michael Gorzynski	director, 10 percent owner	595 MADISON AVE, FLOOR 29, NEW YORK NY 10022
Continental Ltc, Inc.	10 percent owner	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717
Rio Royal Llc	10 percent owner	595 MADISON AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mg Capital Management Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O CAMPBELLS LLP, FLOOR 4, WILLOW HOUSE, CRICKET SQUARE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9010
Continental General Insurance Co	10 percent owner	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717
Continental Insurance Group, Ltd.	10 percent owner	11001 LAKELINE BLVD., STE. 120, AUSTIN TX 78717