Vericel (Vericel) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Vericel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vericel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vericel Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vericel's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Vericel (Vericel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vericel Corp (NAS:VCEL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATQP:Germany

Address

64 Sidney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.vcel.com

Vericel Corp is a fully integrated, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, specialized in advanced therapies for sports medicine and severe burn care markets. It markets two cell therapy products in the United States, MACI (autologous cultured chondrocytes on porcine collagen membrane) and Epicel (cultured epidermal autografts). The company operates in one reportable segment: the research, product development, manufacture, and distribution of patient-specific, expanded cellular therapies for use in the treatment of specific diseases.

Executives

Dominick Colangelo	director, officer: President and CEO	1000 WINTER ST., SUITE 2200, WALTHAM MA 02451
Zerbe Robert L Md	director
Paul K Wotton	director	C/O ANTARES PHARMA, INC., 707 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, SUITE 414, EXTON PA 19341
Sean C. Flynn	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Michael Halpin	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jonathan Mark Hopper	officer: Chief Medical Officer	64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jonathan Siegal	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Lisa Wright	director	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mara Joseph Anthony Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Steven C Gilman	director	110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Sandra Pennell	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	C/O VERICEL CORPORATION, 64 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Gerard J Michel	officer: CFO & VP , Corp. Development	420 CHIPETA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Daniel Orlando	officer: Chief Operating Officer	P.O. BOX 376, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Alan L Rubino	director	PO BOX 376, LOBBY L., ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Consonance Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 3301, NEW YORK NY 10019