Vacasa (Vacasa) Predictability Rank

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What is Vacasa Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vacasa Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vacasa (Vacasa) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Vacasa Inc (NAS:VCSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

850 NW 13th Avenue, Portland, OR, USA, 97209

Website

https://www.vacasa.com

Vacasa Inc is a vacation rental management platform in North America, transforming the vacation rental experience by integrating purpose-built technology with expert local and national teams.

Executives

Mossytree Inc.	10 percent owner	201 SW DOGWOOD LN, WHITE SALMON WA 98672
John Banczak	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VACASA, INC., 850 NW 13TH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97209
Robert Winston Greyber	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SABRE STRATEGIC HOLDINGS, LLC, 3150 SABRE DRIVE, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Tad K Larsen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O VACASA, INC., 850 NW 13TH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97209
Eric Breon	10 percent owner	201 SW DOGWOOD LN, WHITE SALMON WA 98672
Bruce Schuman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	315 MONTGOMERY STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kimberly Rene White	director	C/O VACASA, INC., 850 NW 13TH AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97209
Rachel A Gonzalez	director	3150 SABRE DRIVE, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Karl Mr. Peterson	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
George Mcculloch	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS, INC., 79 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joerg Adams	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp Venice Holdings, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp V Venice Feeder I, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Rcp Iii (a) Blocker Feeder L.p.	10 percent owner	RIVERWOOD MANAGEMENT, 70 WILLOW ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025