VIVK (Vivakor) Predictability Rank

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What is Vivakor Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vivakor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vivakor Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Vivakor Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Vivakor Inc (NAS:VIVK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5220 Spring Valley Road, Suite LL20, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.vivakor.com

Vivakor Inc is a socially responsible operator, acquirer and developer of technologies and assets in the oil and gas industry, as well as related environmental solutions. It is primarily focused on operating crude oil gathering, storage and transportation facilities, as well as contaminated soil remediation services.

Executives

James H. Ballengee	10 percent owner	2009 CHENAULT DRIVE, SUITE 100, CARROLLTON TX 75006
David Natan	director	11190 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33181
Matthew Nicosia	director	2 PARK PLAZA, SUITE 400, IRVINE CA 92614
Al Ferrara	director	433 LAWNDALE DRIVE, SOUTH SALT LAKE CITY UT 84115
Trent Philip Staggs	director	2067 W. BAMBERGER DRIVE, RIVERTON UT 84065
Spence Joseph S Jr	director	C/O VIVAKOR, INC., 433 LAWNDALE DRIVE, SOUTH SALT LAKE CITY UT 84115
Tyler Robert Nelson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIVAKOR, INC., 433 LAWNDALE AVENUE, SOUTH SALT LAKE CITY UT 84115
Francis Wen-hou Chen	director	1821 JONES STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Fritz Lin	director	2590 HOLIDAY ROAD, SUITE 100, CORALVILLE IA 52241
John Gryga	director	2590 HOLIDAY ROAD #100, CORALVILLE IA 52241
Tannin J Fuja	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	2590 HOLIDAY ROAD #100, CORALVILLE IA 52241
Ed Corrente	officer: CFO	2590 HOLIDAY ROAD #100, CORALVILLE IA 52241
Nfg, Inc.	10 percent owner	2222 MICHELSON #222-164, IRVINE CA 92612